Study on advancement of real-time hazard prediction of volcanic eruption and verification test for its social implementation

Principal Investigator (Affiliation)	Prof. IGUCHI Masato Prediction of Volcanic Eruptions, Sakurajima Volcano Research Center, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
Co-investigator	Advisor MIYAMOTO Kuniaki R & D Center, Nippon Koei
Research Participant	Associate Prof. TAMEGURI Takeshi Sakurajima Volcano Research Center, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University Assistant Prof. YAMADA Taishi Prediction of Volcanic Eruptions, Sakurajima Volcano Research Center, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University Project Manager TAJIM Yasuhisa Advanced Technology Department 2, R & D Center, Nippon Koei Project Assistant Manager KUKI Kazuhiro Integrated Information Technology Department, Domestic Consulting Operations, Nippon Koei
International Coordinator	Project Support Researcher IZUMI Mamoru Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
Research Institutions in Japan	Kyoto University / Nippon Koei Co., Ltd.
Cooperating Organization in Japan
Partner Country	Republic of Indonesia
Research Institutions in Indonesia	PVMBG / BPPTKG
Cooperating organization in Indonesia
Support Organization	Kagoshima City / Sleman Regency / Garut Regency / Lumajang Regency / Malan Regency
General Description of the Research Project	In this study, we will install a forecasting system of volcanic hazards at volcano observatories of Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation of Indonesia. The system forecasts the amount of eruptive ejecta from observation data and searches an appropriate hazard map from huge database of hazard map constructed from a large number of scenarios and their chains in order to specify the alert area of eruption hazards. Indonesia has 127 active volcanoes, and eruptions occur frequently. Evacuation from hazards due to volcanic eruptions is of utmost importance. We will establish an empirical formula for predicting the amount of ejecta from observation data such as seismic activity and ground deformation prior to the volcanic eruption, based on data on past eruptions and currently being observed. We develop a system to extract the optimal hazard map based on the predicted eruption volume, and install it at observatories at Guntur and Sumeru volcanoes. Observatory staff will be trained in Japan for capacity development.
Links	Sakurajima Volcano Research Center Disaster Prevention Research Institute PVMBG SATREPS Project JICA　ODA見える化サイト