The purpose of this report is to summarize the functions and activities of strategic foresight, which are being implemented primarily within governments and the public sector across the world; to outline case studies and key issues; and to identify considerations for the Japanese government in formulating R&D strategies and configuring areas for funding programs.

In recent times, with technological innovation advancing rapidly and its impact on industry and society becoming increasingly broad and complex, STI (science, technology and innovation) policies are expected to proactively anticipate future challenges and opportunities, rather than merely reacting to emerging risks. This trend is equally crucial in shaping R&D strategies and configuring areas for funding programs. The following questions are widely recognized as urgent challenges in STI policy both in Japan and globally: how to

• identify early signals of emerging R&D topics, including advancements in science and technology as well as social transformations.
• address challenges tied to these advancements such as ethical, legal, and social issues (ELSI), economic and environmental impacts, and security implications.
• incorporate the insights gained through such strategic foresight into the formulation of strategies and funding programs.

In this research, desktop research based on literature and open sources along with interviews with relevant overseas institutions were conducted to examine the significance, methodologies, processes, and operational practices of strategic foresight. The purposes and motivations for implementing strategic foresight are diverse, and the topics handled and objectives of implementation they address vary widely. However, shared problem awareness and activities such as those described below were observed.

1. Significance of Strategic Foresight

• There is a shared understanding that the value of strategic foresight lies in enhancing policymakers' ability to consider multiple scenarios and possibilities by learning about the interactions between various future possibilities.
• While strategic foresight is intended to directly contribute to decision-making, it is also acknowledged that its purpose is not to accurately predict the future.

2. Methodologies and Processes

• When conducting strategic foresight, methodologies and processes are explicitly defined in advance in accordance with the specific context of each topic, such as how to combine quantitative and qualitative analyses to derive insights.
• With an emphasis on values like openness and inclusiveness, the processes such as eliciting experts, holding workshops, and engaging diverse stakeholders are carefully designed to minimize potential biases.
• Resources and expertise from outside the government are actively utilized to enhance the processes and gather feedbacks.

3. Ideas to Implement Upon Incorporating Strategic Foresight into Policy and Projects

• The importance of fostering capabilities within government rather than outsourcing them to external agencies is widely acknowledged. Efforts aimed at developing the necessary skillsets and literacy exist.
• Multi-scale communities that gather across organizations have been formed both officially and unofficially, enhancing the quality of activities through exchanges of information among participants.
• Refining strategic foresight methodologies is facilitated through collaboration between the government and academia, including academies, universities, and research institutions, as well as through mutual learning within global networks.
• With a view to future STI trends, efforts to train and recruit professionals dedicated to strategic foresight are being pursued.

Many countries adopt a trial-and-error approach to implementing strategic foresight. Based on this report, further in-depth exploration tailored to Japan's unique circumstances is planned. This report aims to promote dialogue among stakeholders and foster collaboration within Japan's strategic foresight community.