R&D Projects

Realizing Policymaking Process of Infectious Disease Control using Mathematical Modeling Techniques

Project Director

Project Director:Hiroshi NISHIURA
Professor, Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University


  • To facilitate epidemiological reference to mathematical modeling studies including estimation and prediction of HIV-infected individuals in Japan
  • To build up policymaking processes of infectious disease control using mathematical models
  • To implement model-based policy suggestions through multi-institutional partnerships
  • To elaborate the formality and feasibility of policy-related modeling studies on infectious disease epidemiology and control among experts in Japan


Tremendous scientific progress has been made in statistics, computer science and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases, permitting experts to predict infectious disease epidemics using empirical data and explicitly evaluate each component of infectious disease control. Nowadays, mathematical models are widely used for practical policymaking purposes in Western countries, including analysis, policy evaluation and prediction of HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), pandemic influenza, Ebola virus and dengue fever. The policymaking process in Japan is not yet based sufficiently on empirical modeling studies and epidemiological evidence.

The aim of our project is to fill the gap that has existed between mathematical modeling studies and public health policymaking by instituting an epidemiological reference system in model-based studies during the policymaking process. The target policies include those associated with (i) immunization systems, (ii) infectious disease surveillance including HIV/AIDS, and (iii) control strategy against emerging infectious diseases.