Progress Report
Artificial generation of upstream maritime heavy rains to govern intense-rain-induced disasters over land (AMAGOI)[7] Legislative Plans
Progress until FY2024
1. Outline of the project
In this research item, we continuously identify legal barriers to the experimentation and implementation of weather control measures. Relying primarily on literature reviews, it examines legislation related to disaster countermeasures and associated theoretical trends. The goal is to develop both (a) a legal framework that reflects the unique conditions of weather control initiatives and (b) a compensation mechanism to address any negative externalities. Specifically, the following themes are addressed:
- Identification of ethical, legal, and social issues (ELSI) associated with small-scale outdoor experiments.
- Examination of emergency countermeasures for water-related disasters.
- Analysis of the establishment and challenges of the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP);
- Investigation of public perceptions regarding river safety;
- Exploration of compensation systems relevant to weather control technologies.
Based on these investigations, the project seeks to develop an action plan to resolve legal challenges associated with weather modification efforts.
2. Outcome so far
- Regarding ELSI in small-scale outdoor experiments, our analysis revealed potential local-level risks specific to the experimental context. There is also concern that public interest in carbon dioxide mitigation efforts could wane if such experiments attract disproportionate attention. Moreover, site selection for experiments may provoke objections from affected communities.
- Japan's disaster management legal framework is characterized by a complex division of responsibilities between the national and local governments and a lack of mechanisms for public participation. Weather control could provide a transformative opportunity for this system, which has traditionally emphasized field-based disaster response. Notably, if weather modification proves effective at least 12 hours prior to a disaster event, it could significantly reduce the burden on local governments during emergency response efforts (cf. Fig.1).
- The NFIP was analyzed as a policy tool designed to incentivize land-use regulation as a means of mitigating flood risks. Despite the program’s intent, our findings highlight a continued national increase in property exposure to flood hazards, underscoring the urgent need for innovative mitigation approaches, including weather control.
- As a preliminary investigation into the feasibility of weather modification, we analyzed litigation records to determine what actions by river authorities have been challenged as illegal by residents. This inquiry reveals two primary types of claims: (a) those alleging delays or failures in implementing river improvement projects, and (b) those contesting the adequacy of existing flood control infrastructure.
- We examined environmental compensation laws, particularly those concerning health damage from pollution, which share characteristics with weather control — namely, regional disparities in impact and challenges in establishing causality. The causal inference methods employed in such legislation may serve as models for weather control policy. Additionally, legal frameworks for compensation in the context of nuclear power — another advanced and potentially hazardous technology — offer useful precedents regarding both the attribution of liability and the easing of the evidentiary burden on victims.
3. Future plans
Building on the above findings, we plan to further investigate the identified issues, including the “dual-use” dilemma. This will involve analysis of relevant laws, judicial precedents related to water-related disasters, international treaties, and special provisions governing indemnity contracts.