Progress Report
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Artificial generation of upstream maritime heavy rains to govern intense-rain-induced disasters over land (AMAGOI)[7] Legislative Plans
Progress until FY2025
1. Outline of the project
In this research item, we continuously identify legal barriers to the experimentation and implementation of weather control measures. Relying primarily on literature reviews, it examines legislation related to disaster countermeasures and associated theoretical trends. The goal is to develop both (a) a legal framework that reflects the unique conditions of weather control initiatives and (b) a compensation mechanism to address any negative externalities. Specifically, the following themes are addressed (cf. Table 1):
- Survey of dam operation regulations for the development of implementation standards.
- Review of the current legal status of potential entities for implementing weather control.
- Analysis of current status and issues of the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).
- Investigation of public perceptions regarding river safety.
- Consideration of compensation systems relevant to weather control measures, including the necessity of such a system (Table 1).
Based on these investigations, the project seeks to develop an action plan to resolve legal challenges associated with weather control efforts.
2. Outcome so far
1. We examined dam operation regulations in order to develop standards for weather control, focusing primarily on how the target of control (floods) is defined, how the means available for control (flood regulation capacity) are determined according to the season, and other considerations relevant to the implementation of control measures (such as irrigation needs).
2. To identify potential implementing entities, we selected several national administrative organizations and compared and analyzed their roles within Japan’s current disaster countermeasures legislation.
3. The NFIP was analyzed as a policy tool designed to incentivize land-use regulation as a means of mitigating flood risks. We revealed that the NFIP, which had been grappling with financial difficulties and the dilemma of affordability, transitioned to a new approach called “Risk Rating 2.0”— which combines measures to mitigate sudden changes while reflecting actual risk in premium rates. We further clarified that this U.S. example, which shifted to a market-based, risk-reflective system, serves as an important model for the future design of Japan’s weather control system.
4. As a preliminary investigation into the feasibility of weather control, we analyzed litigation records to determine what actions by river authorities have been challenged as illegal by residents. This inquiry reveals two primary types of claims: (a) those alleging delays or failures in implementing river improvement projects, even though they are aware of the existence of financial and social restrictions, and (b) those contesting the adequacy of existing flood control infrastructure.
5. We clarified that the Act on Launching Spacecraft and Launch Vehicle and Control of Spacecraft in Japan, which applies to activities utilizing advanced science and technology, imposes strict liability and unlimited liability on operators - a fact that should be taken into account when establishing legislation for weather control. We also revealed that it is difficult to provide adequate relief for damages resulting from weather control operations under Japan’s existing national compensation system, and that the need to establish a compensation system specifically for weather control is undeniable. We also attempted to clarify the potential physical and property damage, drought damage, and impacts on agriculture, forestry, and fisheries that could result from weather control.
3. Future plans
Building on the above findings, we plan to further investigate the identified issues and to work on developing the above action plan. This will involve analysis of relevant laws, judicial precedents related to water-related disasters, international treaties, and special provisions governing indemnity contracts.