Program

MIYOSHI Takemasa PD Photo

Moonshot Goal8Realization of a society safe from the threat of extreme winds and rains by controlling and modifying the weather by 2050.

Program Director (PD)MIYOSHI TakemasaTeam Leader, Center for Computational Science, Data Assimilation Research Team, RIKEN

Outline

Global warming means that wind and flood damage caused by extreme weather events such as typhoons and torrential rains are becoming more severe and frequent. If it is possible to change the intensity, timing, and/or location of extreme weather events that lead to disasters, it may be possible to avoid or dramatically reduce the resulting damage. In this program, we will conduct R&D aimed at: gaining a deeper understanding of extreme weather, which is essential for the development of weather control theory; improving weather forecasting technology such as weather modeling, data assimilation and ensemble methods; and realizing weather control technology that is socially, technically, and economically feasible.

Illustrations

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Goal 8 Illustration
Explanation 1 Explanation 2 Explanation 3

Message from PD

Our goal is to significantly reduce the damage caused by extreme windstorms and floods, which are becoming more severe due to global warming and other factors, by developing weather control technology to change the intensity, timing, and location of typhoons and torrential rains. In our R&D we will combine control theory using numerical simulations, control technology that applies artificial disturbances to the atmosphere, and elements related to fundamental mathematics and ELSI. Weather control has long been a dream of humanity, and through my leadership as PD I hope to realize it as an open technology.

R&D Projects

Selected in FY2021

Control Theory of Weather-Society Coupling Systems for Supporting Social Decision-Making
Project Manager SAWADA Yohei
Associate Professor, Graduate School of Engineering, the University of Tokyo
Outline

This project aims to develop meteorological control theory that will enable small external forces to significantly change the weather. In addition, we also pursue the ability to precisely forecast a wide variety of impacts of meteorological disasters on society, which is necessary for social decision-making regarding weather control. By 2050, we aim to be able to control weather-society coupling systems based on democratic social decision-making processes in order to free the world from the fear of meteorological disasters.

Typhoon Control Research Aiming for a Safe and Prosperous Society
Project Manager FUDEYASU Hironori
Director, Typhoon Science and Technology Research Center, Institute of Advanced Sciences, Yokohama National University/Professor, Faculty of Education, Yokohama National University
Outline

This project aims to develop principles and fundamental techniques to diminish typhoons, which are expected to become increasingly severe with climate change, to the level that disaster prevention infrastructure becomes effective. To this end, we will establish typhoon control theory through high-precision observations by aircraft, ships and satellites, and the development of numerical models that reproduce the inner workings of typhoons. Furthermore, we will conduct disaster forecasting and impact assessment, and tackle the issues of social acceptability and consensus-building for typhoon control. By 2050, we will realize a society of safety and that is free from the threat of typhoons.

Heavy Rainfall Control for Living Together with Isolated-Convective Rainstorms and Line-Shaped Rainbands
Project Manager YAMAGUCHI Kosei
Associate Professor, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
Outline

This project aims to control the intensity of “guerrilla heavy rainfall” and “line-shaped convective heavy rainfall”. Based on numerical meteorological models, field observations, and laboratory experiments, we will develop multiple control devices. We will construct a control system that considers the impact assessment and social accountability of heavy rainfall control, by using those devices at multiple points in time and in multiple phases. By 2050, we will contribute to the formation of a future society in which heavy rainfall control technologies integrate with nature and human society.

Quantifying Weather Controllability and Mitigatable Flood Damage Based on Ensemble Weather Forecast
Project Manager KOTSUKI Shunji
Professor, Institute for Advanced Academic Research / Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University
Outline

To achieve weather control, we need to enable discussions on a bottleneck for decision-making: the way to maximize the effect of control. To quantify weather controllability, this project investigates meteorological landscapes that separate disaster and non-disaster regimes which can be controlled by small operations through deep learning applied to historical disaster events. We also estimate economical damage and impacted populations throughout Japan under non-controlled/controlled scenarios, in order to quantify avoidable damage by the weather control.

Estimation and Control of Air-Sea Momentum and Heat Fluxes of Typhoons
Project Manager TAKAGAKI Naohisa
Associate Professor, Graduate School of Engineering, University of Hyogo
Outline

To realize weather control, highly accurate weather forecasting is essential. In particular, for controlling typhoons, there are two bottlenecks: (1) low accuracy of typhoon intensity predictions; (2) difficulty of distinguishing natural and control effects. This project aims to solve these bottlenecks by investigating the mechanism of momentum and heat transfer across the sea surface under typhoons, and formulating the momentum and heat fluxes using parameters associated with wave-breaking and wind waves through a large laboratory experiment for simulating typhoons.

Development of an Atmospheric Simulation Model for Estimating the Probability of Local Atmospheric Phenomena
Project Manager NISHIZAWA Seiya
Research Scientist, RIKEN Center for Computational Science
Outline

To realize weather control, we must solve a bottleneck to determining the optimal control method: that it is difficult to accurately estimate the probability associated with properties of local atmospheric phenomena, such as location, time, intensity. This project aims to develop an atmospheric simulation model suitable for this estimation which solves several problems inherent to current atmospheric simulation models, developing new computation schemes that are qualitatively different from conventional ones.

Actuator Position Optimization for Large-Degree-of-Freedom Fields
Project Manager NONOMURA Taku
Associate Professor, Department of Aerospace Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University
Outline

To realize weather control, we need to solve the bottleneck that the positions for actuators to maximize weather control effects are unknown. This project aims to organize, develop and evaluate actuator position optimization methods. We will show through weather simulation experiments that the obtained actuator positions can be used to improve control effects.

Development of Unmanned Marine Observation Vehicles Essential for Forecasting and Monitoring of Typhoon Artificial Control
Project Manager MORI Shuichi
Principal Researcher, Center for Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Research (CCOAR) of Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)
Outline

To realize weather control, nature needs to be continuously monitored. For typhoons it is important to continuously monitor the marine atmosphere and ocean surface layer near the typhoon center, which play important roles in the typhoon development process. However, it is difficult to conduct this monitoring via aircraft or satellites, which means it is a bottleneck for weather control. This project aims to develop unmanned maritime vehicles that can be virtually moored near the area of a typhoon center and continuously observe the atmosphere-ocean data along the movement path of the typhoon.

Advisors

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NAKAZAWA Tetsuo* Academic Supporting Staff, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo
SAKAJO Takashi* Professor, Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University
IMURA Jun-ichi Executive Vice President for Education/
Professor, Department of Systems and Control Engineering,School of Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology
USHIO Toshimitsu Professor, Graduate School of Engineering Science, Osaka University
USHIO Tomoo Professor, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University
OHARA Miho Senior Researcher, International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management, Public Works Research Institute
SAITO Kazuo Laboratory Head, Research Promotion Department, Japan Meteorological Business Support Center
SHINEHA Ryuma Associate Professor, Research Center on Ethical, Legal, and Social Issues, Osaka University
SUITO Hiroshi Professor, Advanced Institute for Materials Research, Tohoku University
YASUDA Tamaki Counselor for research and development, Administration department, Japan Meteorological Agency
YAMADA Michio Project professor, Research Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Kyoto University
YODEN Shigeo Vice Director/Program-Specific Professor, Institute for Liberal Arts and Sciences, Kyoto University

*Sub Program Director

Contact

Moonshot Goal 8 R&D Program Secretariat
Department of Moonshot Research and Development Program, Japan Science and Technology Agency

e-mail moonshot-goal8adjst.go.jp