Strategic Sectors

Development of next-generation high-accuracy and high-resolution simulation technology

(Set in FY2005)

1. Title

2. Specific Objectives

To establish effective computing procedures which realize multi-scale and multi-physics simulation, and to develop advanced simulation technology such as optimal design problems, compound analysis, by fully utilizing the state-of-the-art computing environments of Japan.

The following subjects may be considered as objects of research and development

* Creation of advanced technologies for predicting global circulation and environmental changes, and for predicting and assessing mutual influences between global environments and social and productive activities:
- Create advanced technologies for predicting climatic changes, which are attributed as cause of abnormal weather, over a period of several years to several decades . Also create revolutionary simulation technology realizing big leaps in prediction accuracy of weather over a period of several hours to several days.
-Create advanced technologies of scenarios, models, etc. for predicting and assessing interactions between global environmental changes and social and productive human activities, by such measures as integration of climate models, ecological system models, etc. with social and production models, etc.

* Establishment of simulation technology realizing digital engineering technology, such as next-generation materials:
- Advanced material design technology necessary for the development of carbon nanotube, terahertz oscillating superconductive device , etc. and digital engineering technology for performing all processes of their development,design, trial manufacture, testing and commercialization on simulation.

* Application of life phenomena simulation to medicine:
- Create an effective medicine creating process by predicting binding activity with candidate substance for medicine with high accuracy, through calculation of molecular orbital of all electrons in protein. Further create technologiesintended for realizing tailor-made treatment, which consist of finding optimal drugs and treating method for individual patients.

* Establishment of simulation technology for prediction and prevention of natural disasters:
- Create simulation for prevention of natural disasters such as prediction of damage by earthquakes, preparation of hazard maps, etc.Other priority fields of simulation technology

3. Background of Objectives and Social and Economical Imperatives

Computational science technology as represented by simulation on a computer is playing a major role for the development of modern science and technology, as a "third method", in addition to theory and experiment which have been traditional methods of scientific and technological studies. It is important to establish advanced simulation technology to keep creating world-class research and development results, so that Japan may lead other countries in the field of science and technology.
It is much expected socially that, by implementing high-speed and large-scale advanced simulation, it will become possible to contribute to applications in a wide range of scientific studies such as nano material, biological sciences and creation of medicines, and to reinforce competitiveness of Japan through performance improvement and cost reduction of automobiles, jet engine, etc. as well as construct safe and secure society by prediction of weather and natural disasters, influences assessment of disasters on life lines, and improvement of urban environments, etc.
For example, worldwide consensus has not yet been attained on the problem of the global warming issue, because of uncertainty contained in its prediction and assessment of influences, and difficulty in one-to-one correspondence of the results of atmospheric changes, collapse of ecological system, natural disasters, etc., in various places against such factors as destruction of natural environments by emission of greenhouse effect gases and socio-economic activities in the respective countries, etc. To cope with this problem, it is necessary to establish highly reliable simulation regarding large-area climatic conditions in various parts of the earth over a period of tens to hundreds of years to come.

4. Scientific Justification for the Objectives

As of 2005, the performance of the most advanced supercomputer has become one exceeding that of teraFLOPS class. Furthermore, from the trend of hardware technology, it is estimated that a performance exceeding that of petaFLOPS class will become possible in 2010. Such improvement in the performance of supercomputer hardware enables us to envisage a super-large-scale and complicated system as a whole or, so to say, multi-scale and multi-physics simulation in the future. In such system, it is necessary to challenge advanced simulation also commanding future supercomputer exceeding petaFLOPS class in its perspective.
Moreover, on the problem of global environments, a variety of global environmental projects are being implemented under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the results of estimation by various types of global warming model are available, but such models are mostly those containing much supposition and simplification, and there are large variations in their results. Furthermore, in the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP), one such global environmental project, attempts are being made for modeling interactions among atmosphere, ocean, carbon cycle and hydrological cycle including biological processes. On the other hand, research and development started on short-term estimation of atmospheric conditions for a period of several hours to several days, by developing detailed models of atmospheric and ocean changes and performing simulation of the entire globe, in addition to long-term estimation of global warming. Furthermore, observation points regarding estimation of atmospheric conditions such as emission of CO2 and evaporation of water, are being installed in various places, and there are also plans to launch observation satellites in 2007 by the United States and Japan respectively for the purpose of observing emission and behavior of greenhouse effect gases on the global scale, and acquisition of data with better quality for the development of models is expected.