Progress Report
Realization of a society where people can live a forward-looking life in the face of adversity[1] Development and Measurement of “Maemuki (Forward-looking)” indices
Progress until FY2024
1. Outline of the project
In Research and Development Item 1, which aims to create and measure forward-looking indicators, we are working on optimizing forward-looking indicators and building models using various survey platforms. We conducted a large-scale online survey using a draft version of a subjective scale for forward-lookingness, performed item reduction and factor extraction for this subjective scale, and revised its items. In real-world measurements targeting top athletes, we administered the forward-looking scale and multidimensional physical measurements to athletes from different sports. Furthermore, we advanced the flow experience items of the forward-looking scale as a questionnaire scale that considers cultural differences, and an English version has been completed. Additionally, we have proceeded with the development of models to estimate forward-lookingness using laboratory data and open data.
2. Outcome so far
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● Mechanisms of Embodied "Forward-Lookingness"
We conducted large-scale surveys (cross-sectional and longitudinal) using the "Forward-Looking Scale" developed thus far. Furthermore, we created multiple cognitive tasks to evaluate the cognitive functions of forward-lookingness, and for some of these, we identified correlations with mood and memory, leading to a paper submission and conference presentation. By constructing a new machine learning method, we succeeded in creating a model capable of estimating the degree of visual illusion and metacognition from positive illusion (individual data on the illusion of superiority), a key element of forward-lookingness (Matsuyoshi, Isato, Yamada, 2024). Moreover, by applying this method, we have built predictive models for well-being, well-going, and forward-lookingness in adversity, and are proceeding with further validation experiments. Additionally, as a result of examining the causal relationship between positive illusion (optimism bias) and mood from longitudinal large-scale survey data, we clarified that optimism bias influences mood (Isato, Aizawa, Miyamae, Yamada. 2024).
● Real-World Sensing and Sports Performance Evaluation
We conducted surveys and interviews with a large number of athletes using a draft version of the forward-looking scale. Furthermore, in collaboration with athletes and sports organizations, we prepared measurement systems, developed the environment, and collected data during athletes' daily lives and actual competitions. Through blink analysis of formula car drivers, we succeeded in capturing changes in cognitive states (Nishizono, Saijo, Kashino, 2023). We also revealed that brain activity directly related to victory or defeat in esports appears immediately before a match (Minami et al., 2023). Additionally, we have conducted multidimensional measurements in the practical setting of a snowboarding competition and are proceeding with the analysis.
● Circulation and Generalization of Forward-Lookingness through Flow Experience
In the creation of flow experience items for the forward-looking scale and the examination of cultural differences, we conducted interviews with students at the California Institute of Technology. We examined the validity of the items in a Western cultural context and selected items deemed necessary for the forward-looking scale. Furthermore, we integrated these with a flow scale to complete a provisional English version of a combined Flow and Forward-Lookingness Scale.
Regarding experiments on the circulation and generalization of forward-lookingness, we created cognitive and behavioral tasks that induce flow experiences under various conditions and conducted preliminary studies. In addition to tabletop and screen-based games, we selected multiple flow experience tasks designed to generate solo/team flow, including full-body e-games and e-games co-developed with corporations. We then conducted multi-module biological measurements, including EEG, 3D motion capture, pupil/gaze tracking, and heart rate/respiration measurement.
3. Future plans
Based on the achievements of fiscal year 2024, in fiscal year 2025 and beyond, we will continue multidimensional measurement experiments of psychology, brain, and body, as well as longitudinal measurements, to advance the optimization of the "Forward-Looking Scale" as a Well-going indicator. Based on the results of these surveys and experiments, we will prototype "Body2Positive," a system for estimating subjective "forward-lookingness" from bodily information. We plan to further develop this into technologies capable of interpreting an individual's "forward-lookingness" and providing assistance and training.