Progress Report
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Typhoon Control Research Aiming for a Safe and Prosperous Society[4] Examining ELSI on Typhoon Control
Progress until FY2025
1. Outline of the project
Controlling typhoons is expected to result in social benefits such as disaster prevention and mitigation. This "social implementation" of typhoon control technology has already been mentioned in the Basic Act on Disaster Management (Law No. 223 of 1961), enacted in response to the catastrophe of the Ise Bay Typhoon of 1959.
Most of weather modification, including typhoon control, may cause negative impacts on third parties other than those who benefit from them (beneficiaries). Let us assume: is it ethically permissible to apply typhoon control technology when, even if it is possible to prevent a river A from overflowing, that rain will fall in another area B, resulting in a landslide disaster? Also, if the attempt to control happens to have an unpredictable negative impact on a third party (meaning that the "control" fails), who should bear this loss and how?
This group, led by researchers in the humanities and social sciences, will examine the ethical, legal, and social issues (ELSI) that may arise from the social implementation of typhoon control. It will also serve as a hub for members participating in the Goal 8 projects.
2. Outcome so far
For FY 2025, we addressed the following three challenges: firstly, we aimed to create a draft document on self-regulation for small-scale outdoor experiments in weather control in collaboration with the Joint ELSI Unit. As a result of our efforts up to FY 2024, we have created a draft of the ethical principles and experimental guidelines for weather control research. The Joint ELSI Unit has been working on this draft document (PI Sasaoka participated in the unit's activities). The main results of the Joint ELSI Unit, “Principles for Responsible Research and Innovation in Weather Control Research and Development in Moonshot Goal 8 (Interim Draft)” (“MS8-RRI Principles”), published in September 2025, are based on historical research, international law, and the analysis of national domestic laws (Figure 1), social surveys, environmental ethics, and other related field research.
Secondly, we set a goal to complete a social implementation scenario for cloud seeding to control typhoons. In FY 2025, we organized the implementation stage scenario (e.g., aircraft procurement, GO/NO-GO decision-making, success/failure definitions, and alternative uses of the aircraft) and clarified the issues to be considered in the implementation stage of typhoon control (see Figure 2).
Thirdly, we aimed to produce a video that can be used to promote understanding and dialogue about typhoon control and that can help people imagine the 2050 stage of typhoon control operations. Based on the results of our past research and the knowledge of researchers participating in the typhoon control project, we created an animation video that illustrates the 2050 stage of typhoon control operations (see Figure 3).
The video will be presented at the Typhoon Science and Technology Research Center (TRC) event in June 2026.
3. Future plans
In FY 2026, we will continue to contribute to the development of voluntary regulatory framework and engage in efforts to elaborate international rules.