Progress Report
Typhoon Control Research Aiming for a Safe and Prosperous Society[4] Examining ELSI on Typhoon Control
Progress until FY2023
1. Outline of the project
Controlling typhoons is expected to result in social benefits such as disaster prevention and mitigation. This "social implementation" of typhoon control technology has already been mentioned in the Basic Act on Disaster Management (Law No. 223 of 1961), enacted in response to the catastrophe of the Ise Bay Typhoon of 1959.
Most of weather modification, including typhoon control, may cause negative impacts on third parties other than those who benefit from them (beneficiaries). Let us assume: is it ethically permissible to apply typhoon control technology when, even if it is possible to prevent a river A from overflowing, that rain will fall in another area B, resulting in a landslide disaster? Also, if the attempt to control happens to have an unpredictable negative impact on a third party (meaning that the "control" fails), who should bear this loss and how?
This group, led by researchers in the humanities and social sciences, will examine the ethical, legal, and social issues (ELSI) that may arise from the social implementation of typhoon control. It will also serve as a hub for members participating in the Goal 8 projects.
2. Outcome so far
In FY2023, after clarifying the method for proceeding with ELSI research on the social implementation of new science and technology (Figure 1), we deepened our investigation and analysis of the issues already identified in the previous two years (putative conflicts from the standpoint of environmental justice and ethics, and legal and institutional issues) and conducted case studies based on hypothetical social implementation scenarios (Figure 2).
Through the social implementation scenarios, we have described the issues that arise in the operational phase (the authority that decides and activates the control, the requirements of the control, the criteria for activation, the cost bearers, the operational system, and the impact evaluation system) and the desirable compensation system for the loss or damage to third parties. For example, we considered whether the control should be activated according to the amount of economic loss (if so, people who live in the area with fewer properties may not enjoy the benefit of the control); the extent to which the residual risk of the control activity should be allowed; and how the operator should compensate for the loss or damage resulting from the failure of the operation, both in the case where the control did not mitigate the damage as expected and in the case where the control adversely affected the third parties beyond the expectation.
In FY2023, we began to draft a guideline to ensure that field experiments are conducted safely. For this purpose, we have referred to existed criteria for hurricane control activities (Project Stormfury in the 1960s) (Figure 3), some principles for R&D projects of geoengineering to interfere the climate, and domestic regulations that allow private entities to modify the weather for precipitation enhancement.
3. Future plans
We will continue to work on drafting a guideline for upcoming field experiments in 2030. In addition, we plan to design the picture of social implementation and ecosystem at the time of 2050, involving other relevant industries such as energy and electric power.