Proposal Papers for Policy Making and Governmental Action toward Low Carbon Society

LCS-FY2020-PP-17

Economic and Technological Evaluation for Zero Carbon Electric Power System Considering System Stability (Vol. 2):
Scenario Analysis for the Development of Zero Carbon Electric Power System in 2050

  • SDGs7
  • SDGs11
  • SDGs12
  • SDGs13
  • SDGs1
  • SDGs09

Summary

 Towards the bright and affluent zero-carbon society in 2050, low and zero-carbon (ZC) power supply configurations that will supply economical electricity in 2030 and 2050 were examined in this proposal by means of a power supply configuration model calculation method based on quantitative technology scenarios.

 In addition, the economic impacts brought by capital investment from now to 2050 for ZC power were estimated through scenario analysis. Regarding economic efficiency, the model analysis results suggested that the power supply below the current electricity cost level (about 14 JPY/kWh excluding electricity transmission cost) can be achieved at a maximum of about 1,700 TWh/y of electricity demand (in the case of a 50% reduction in CO2 from power generation fuel compared to 2013) and at a maximum of about 1,400 TWh/y (70% reduction). Furthermore, it was clarified that in 2050, even with an electricity demand of 1,600 TWh/y, the ZC power supply configuration could be economically constructed (about 17 JPY/kWh including electricity transmission. This cost excludes treatment cost of 23 Mt/y CO2 emission associated with facility construction). The capital investment associated with the new construction of a photovoltaic (PV) system, wind power system, and secondary battery system was quantified through the scenario analysis, indicating the expansion of their market scale. Based on these outcomes, it is proposed to promote the developments of PV and wind power industries, and the establishment of more efficient new secondary battery technologies as a policy in order to achieve ZC power.

All Pages

Related Proposal Papers