LCS-FY2021-PP-19
A Study on the Classification and Future Directions of Current Municipal Socio-economic Activities towards Financial Independence
Summary
Wide-ranging discussions have taken place regarding the form that areas should take in the context of realizing a decarbonized society in Japan, where the population is decreasing and aging. Two main directions have been proposed: one is to aim for concentrated residential and industrial urban areas for the sake of energy and economic efficiency, and the other is the decentralization of the population and economy in regional areas, from the perspective of a preference for lifestyles that emphasize the natural environment and the utilization of resources characterized by the region, such as renewable energy, agriculture, and tourism. Typical examples of these can be seen in“ Doraemon Society and Satsuki-and-Mei Society,” depicted by Fujino [1] in 2005.
When creating concrete depictions of a sustainable future for an area, it is first necessary to gain a quantitative understanding of the historical and current changes in the local society and economy. This proposal analyzes the current state of local economies and their potential, upon which discussions of a future sustainable Japan are predicated, based on the historical data of around 1,700 municipalities across the country. First, economic activity trends in municipalities have been classified into eight patterns based on population growth rate, financial capacity index, and the growth rate of sales productivity per person in all industries, manufacturing, agriculture/forestry/fishery, accommodation and food services, and commerce. In cases in which growth is not indicated through these macro indicators, future prospects are explored by looking at the growth of further subdivided commodity classifications in agriculture, fishery, and accommodation and food services. The results show that many small cities often keep their unique industries even if they face decreasing population and low financial capacity index. The long term policy should pay attention to keep and grow such local featured industries. The study also proposes new options for areas with few opportunities to grow their existing industries: the use of biomass hydrocarbons, the installation of data centers, and the use of unoccupied houses as satellite offices in districts with many empty buildings.
The study also evaluated the possibility of improving financial capacity indexes through the unification of municipalities in areas in which the population is decreasing. As a result, it is predicted that around 20% of Japanese municipalities will be reduced through integration, but in the long term more consolidation will be needed.
In municipalities that are struggling with independence, governmental services should be supplemented with ICT and other services following integration, and new ways of using the natural asset of biomass resources, etc. should be maintained by companies. On islands they should be maintained by the government from the perspective of monitoring and ensuring security.