Proposal Papers for Policy Making and Governmental Action toward Low Carbon Society

LCS-FY2021-PP-15

A Projection of Future CO2 Emissions of Household Sector Considering Population Changes, Residential Building Choices, Energy Conservation and Electrification Options

Summary

 Emissions reduction in the household sector is a major issue in achieving the zero emissions target of the Japanese government. In the household sector, (1) wide and thin distribution of emissions sources by emissions closely related to daily activities, (2) climate, geographical conditions, diversity of lifestyles and way of living for energy demand by usage, and (3) cost issues of short-term countermeasure options are the subjects of policy evaluation. In addition, for Japanese society in general, the social impacts, such as (4) the decrease in emissions due to population decrease and constraints on the introduction of new measures and (5) the possibility of a generational shift due to population decrease and aging, also need to be considered.

 From the aspect of the future technology in the household sector, it is expected that there will be a shift from a vertically divided energy system to a cross-sectoral one such as integration with the transportation sector, which was traditionally independent, widespread use of photovoltaic (PV) cells due to their falling prices and demand change in the power grid, the introduction potential of net Zero Energy House / net Zero Energy Building (ZEH/ZEB), which realizes significant energy savings in commercial buildings, and the introduction of electric vehicles (EV). As an extension of this, there is also a concept to restructure an energy system that integrates the entire city block, such as a compact city.
 In order to deal with these issues in an integrated manner, this report explicitly deals with changes in the household structure due to population decrease and increase in single-person households in each municipality nationwide and makes future forecasts of (1) shift from single-family housing to multi-family housing and (2) demand for new residential housing. Based on the FY2017 and FY2018 annual survey of household CO2 emissions by the Ministry of the Environment, energy consumption and CO2 emissions by usage/housing type by the municipality, changes in CO2 emissions when technologies such as EV, heat pump, and heat insulation are introduced into housing, and changes in demand for building materials due to changes in demand for new residential housing construction are predicted and evaluated. By this means, the effectiveness of the introduction of technology options in the household sector can be evaluated by region and housing type, and the priority of technology introduction policies can be derived.

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