LCS-FY2021-PP-09
Industrial Structure in 2030 and 2050 towards Zero Carbon Society
Summary
In order to achieve the goals of 46% reduction of CO2 emissions in 2030 and zero carbon society in 2050, it is important to quantitatively show the future industrial structure. The Center for Low Carbon Society Strategy (LCS) presented a method for calculating GDP, CO2 emissions, and electricity demand using the Input- Output table and CO2 emission table in the LCS proposa“l Changes of Industrial Structure towards Zero Carbon Society, LCS-FY2019-PP-14” [1].
Using the published 2015 Input-Output Table [2] and the 2015 Embodied Energy and Emission Intensity Data for Japan (3EID) [3], an extended Input-Output table including renewable energy power generations and a CO2 emission factor table were prepared. We conducted Input-Output analysis of a number of cases, including changing the electricity supply from 1,000 to 3,000 TWh in the power generation sector, and making changes that are expected to occur in the future in nine sectors that have a large impact on GDP, CO2 emissions, and electricity demand, as well as changes that are considered necessary to reduce CO2 emissions. Based on some of the results, we calculated the GDP, CO2 emissions, and electricity demand in 2030 and 2050, showed that the CO2 emission reduction target is achievable, and also clarified the issues to achieve the target.
Using this method, it is possible to evaluate various scenarios by changing the changes made to the Input- Output analysis.
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