Proposal Papers for Policy Making and Governmental Action toward Low Carbon Society

LCS-FY2019-PP-16

Population Analysis for Industrial Structure Study in Future Low Carbon Society

  • SDGs8
  • SDGs9
  • SDGs7
  • SDGs13

Summary

 Construction of low-carbon and zero-carbon (ZC) society to mitigate climate change is essential. A ZC society requires social transformation and innovation over the next few decades. LCS has been clarifying the image of an economically active, satisfying and fulfilling zero-carbon society and studying how to make the transition.

 In the future ZC society, the structure of society and industry will change drastically, and the employment structure will change accordingly. This study has been conducted from the viewpoint of population and employment structure. The labor population will drop by 27% in 2050 compared to 2018 and GDP by 30%. To increase GDP by 0.5% annually by 2050, it is necessary to increase labor productivity by 1.5 times and 1.0% annually on average in all industries. By industry, many industries need to increase labor productivity by 0.5~3%. This improvement in labor productivity must be achieved while improving the quality of life in a future society in which information and communication technology and various automation/artificial intelligence utilization technologies are evolving in an environment of decarbonization and population decline. It is important to develop: vocational education for young people; and vocational education, health maintenance and an environment for active participation in society for the elderly, in line with new industrial structure. It is necessary to propose scenarios based on various assumptions and clarify the path to a satisfying and fulfilling society. In this study, we developed basic data for analysis and evaluation from the labor population.

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