LCS-FY2017-PP-19
Study on Modeling for Medium-to Long-term CO2 Emissions Forecasting in the Residential Sector
Summary
Future forecasts of CO2 emissions in the residential sector can be calculated based on predictions of final energy consumption. Previous studies, however, were conducted under conditions which either fixed the household energy demand, upon which final energy consumption calculations are based, at the present value, or which assumed that past trends would be maintained into the future.
In this report, final energy consumption in the residential sector in 2050 was estimated at about 1,145 PJ/y ~ 1,831 PJ/y, by setting multiple possible scenarios including not only changes in penetration rates and energy efficiency for equipment, but also lifestyle changes related to air conditioning. Electricity consumption in 2050 was estimated at 929 PJ/y ~ 964 PJ/y (roughly equal to 258 TWh/y ~ 268 TWh/y); fossil fuel consumption including gas was estimated at 216 PJ/y ~ 867PJ/y. Since CO2 emissions must be reduced by 80% by 2050, the necessity of further reducing fossil fuel consumption was clear. To put it another way, this result suggests that it is impossible to achieve our CO2 reduction goal, unless we envision more dynamic lifestyle changes, in addition to the scenarios assumed based on the current situation. In the scenario where fossil fuel consumption was minimized, fossil fuels were consumed almost equally for heating, hot water supply, and kitchens. Going forward, we need to consider lifestyle changes that can contribute to the reduction of fossil fuel consumption in these uses.