LCS-FY2016-PP-14
Prediction of Popularization of Fuel Cells Considering Limited Rationality of Consumers
Summary
In this paper, we used the logit model to predict dissemination of fuel cells. We divided price of fuel cell into several factors, estimate price of each factor, and simulated fuel cell price reduction effect such as mass production effect, technology development.
We conducted a case study in the case of changing the subsidy value based on the forecasting model we created and evaluated the adequacy of the policy goal of spreading 5.3 million fuel cells cumulatively by 2030. We also established a new penetration target till 2030 and decided the subsidy amount so that the cumulative grant benefit will be the minimum in achieving that goal.