Proposal Papers for Policy Making and Governmental Action toward Low Carbon Society

LCS-FY2016-PP-12

Aspects of Decarbonized Society from a Forecast of Energy Demand in Japan (Vol. 2)

Summary

 This article considers the possibility of structural change with respect to the recent trend of a decline in energy consumption in Japan. Using the energy demand model developed, future energy demand in 2030 has been predicted. We consider three scenarios concerning the economic growth rate.

 The first scenario is the reference case where the recent trend of domestic energy consumption continues. The other scenarios are alternative economic growth cases where the growth rates of real GDP increase by 1% and 0% per year from 2014 to 2030. In the 0% economic growth rate case, it was found that energy consumption is 11,800 PJ, and CO2 emissions are 933 Mt-CO2, 22% less in 2030 from 2013. The results of the analysis show that energy consumption in the service sector will present the greatest increase. Thus it is important to particularly promote energy and climate policies in that sector. Moreover, it is important to expand investment in the sustainable economy by promoting the development and dissemination of cost-effective low carbon technologies to achieve economic growth and CO2 emission reduction.

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