Proposal Papers for Policy Making and Governmental Action toward Low Carbon Society

LCS-FY2015-PP-16

Aspects of Decarbonized Society from a Forecast of Energy Demand in Japan

Summary

 It is significant to comprehend how much of potential of energy saving in an economic society promoted by energy consumption when we share the future vision for the affluent low carbon society is decoupled from carbon-intensive energy consumption by renewable energy and related technology.

 We developed the multi-equation model for the long term estimate of energy demand under the energy economic and demographic assumptions in order to capture the impact of the low carbon technology on the society. In order to forecast a future energy demand considering the structural change of energy supply after the accident in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, the scenario is constructed in which economy in Japan recovers strongly with a growth rate of real GDP is 1.7% a year, which is regarded as the reference case in our analysis. In the reference case, it is projected that total final energy demand decreases by around 5% and CO2 emission also decreases by about 16% between 2013 and 2030. The energy demand in manufacturing and transport-services decreases, and the demand in services and residential sectors increases. From this result, services and residential sector is found to have relatively larger energy saving potential than manufacturing and transport-services. When market is expected to be enhanced, enhancing energy intensity in services sector underlies the affiliate low carbon society. Therefore it is important to prepare the related market and implement a policy measure to support the market.

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