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JST Press Release

December 08, 2015
Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST)
5-3, Yonbancho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-8666

Supply-demand balancing based on interval prediction of photovoltaic power generation

A large penetration of photovoltaic (PV) power generation systems is expected by 2030. However, large fluctuations in PV power generation caused by abrupt climate changes make the exact prediction of demand profiles very difficult. Since such a prediction error possibly causes serious accidents, e.g. blackouts, it is crucial to devise a method to maintain the supply-demand balance in the presence of the prediction uncertainty of PV power generation.

Assistant Professor Takayuki Ishizaki and Professor Jun-ichi Imura of Tokyo Institute of Technology have developed a fundamental method for guaranteeing the supply-demand balance on the basis of the interval prediction of PV power generation, even if the total amount of PV power generation corresponding to approximately 30% of the peak power consumption is introduced. This method provides an insighit into clarifying the minimum amounts of the regulating/reserving capacity of thermal generators and the battery and inverter capacities enough to tolerate any possible prediction errors occuring with a certain probability.

Collaborators for this research include Assistant Professor Masakazu Koike of Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, Professor Nacim Ramdani of University of Orleans, Junior Associate Professor Yuzuru Ueda of Tokyo University of Science, Chief Researcher Taisuke Masuta of The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Group leader Takashi Oozeki of National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), and Research Fellow Tomonori Sadamoto of Tokyo Institute of Technology.

Researcher Information

Research Area “Creation of Fundamental Theory and Technology to Establish a Cooperative Distributed Energy Management System and Integration of Technologies Across Broad Disciplines Toward Social Application”
Research Theme “System Theory for Harmonized Power System Control Based on PV Power Prediction”

Journal Information

“Interval quadratic programming for day-ahead dispatch of uncertain predicted demand”. Automatica, Volume 64, February 2016, Pages 163–173, doi: 10.1016/j.automatica.2015.11.002.


[About Research]
Jun-ichi Imura, Ph.D.
Professor, Department of Mechanical and Environmental informatics, Graduate School of Information Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology

[About Program]
Koji Matsuo
ICT Group, Department of Innovation Research, JST


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