Proposal Papers for Policy Making and Governmental Action toward Low Carbon Society

LCS-FY2022-PP-10

Impact of Progress of Information Society on Energy Consumption (Vol. 6):
Case Studies at End-users (on the Impact of MaaS and Autonomous Driving on Passenger Cars)

  • SDGs7
  • SDGs9
  • SDGs13

Summary

 The impact of the development of the information society on energy consumption was examined for endusers, who enjoy the convenience of ICT and are the source of data demand.

 As a case study, the impact of the penetration of autonomous driving and MaaS into society was examined using a model of changes in the number of passenger cars, the volume of communication, and energy consumption. The model assumed that as autonomous driving vehicles become more prevalent, 30% of them will shift from private ownership to being used as on-demand passenger vehicles (mainly robo-taxis and car-sharing), and that robo-taxis will satisfy about four times the travel demand of private cars, based on an analogy of current taxis. The penetration of autonomous driving in the domestic market was assumed to be around 8 million units in 2050, based on market survey data.
 As a result, it was estimated that the number of passenger cars (53 million) considered in proportion to the number of driver’s license holders in 2050 will decrease by approximately 10 million vehicles to 43 million vehicles with the introduction of autonomous vehicles. The required communication volume was estimated to be 3,000 EB/year assuming 1 TB/vehicle/day, and 7 Gbps–700 Gbps/base station for the access system, with a corresponding power consumption of 14-60 TWh/year. On the other hand, the energy-saving effect corresponding to a reduction in the number of cars was estimated to be 500 TWh (2050), and it was estimated that a reduction in the number of cars through the popularization of MaaS + autonomous driving would be favorable from an energy perspective.
 It is estimated that the social benefits of the introduction of MaaS and autonomous vehicles include a significant increase in freedom of movement for the elderly and mobility-impaired, an improvement in quality of life, and a reduction in social costs of about $1,000/person due to a decrease in traffic accidents.
 While the promotion of autonomous driving technology and demonstration tests are particularly important for the popularization of autonomous vehicles, it is also important to promote policies accompanied by the development of legal, economic, and socio-environmental systems, which were not mentioned in this proposal.

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