Proposal Papers for Policy Making and Governmental Action toward Low Carbon Society

LCS-FY2022-PP-06

Sustainable Potential of Woody Biomass in Japan:
Future Demand and Supply Potential of Woody Biomass

  • SDGs7
  • SDGs9
  • SDGs13
  • SDGs15
  • SDGs8

Summary

 According to the targets in Japan's latest Basic Plan for Forest and Forestry (Forestry Agency: Cabinet decision in June 2021), the total annual growth of forests in FY2017 was 68 million m3/year (trunk volume: Forest Resources Status Survey), while the target for FY2040 is 63 million m3/year, a decrease.

 In addition, the target for wood self-sufficiency in 2030 is 48%, with no final target specified. As one of the world's leading forest nations, Japan could achieve 100% wood self-sufficiency in the future( 50 to 100 years from now) with proper planning and management. By estimating the total annual growth of Japan's forests based on data from the latest surveys conducted by local governments, this report proposes a method to maintain at least the current annual growth rate, and suggestions for the future state of forest resources. In addition, the future demand of wood is assumed to be for conventional fuels, pulp, and building/civil engineering materials, as well as for plastics made of woody biomass, which have recently been a focus of research, and the supply of wood needed after 2050 has been examined comprehensively.
 As a result, it was found that if the current forest area is maintained through the main cutting and reforestation of the same area every year, a total annual growth rate of 110 million tons/year can be maintained sustainably if long-logging operations are carried out. In this case, a wood self-sufficiency rate of more than 100% is possible. Furthermore, if woody biomass is utilized as a raw material for plastics in a new industry, forest resources are expected to be sufficient to cover the current annual demand of about 10 million tons/year for plastics derived from fossil resources. Although further cost reductions will be necessary, the use of wood for plastics as a new source of demand for wood is highly promising. The allocation of wood to each demand will depend on new technological developments and demand trends, and will be an issue to be addressed in the future.

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